今日のテーマは、核抑止論（a nuclear deterrence theory）について
サンプルエッセーでは、核抑止の利点は欠点を上回らないという立場ですが、
他の敵対的な国が核を保有している以上、保有数をある程度少なくすることは可能でも、
核保有ゼロというのは現実的には難しいと思います。（日本のように「アメリカの核の傘」に守られている場合を別ですが）

昨今のロシアのウクライナ侵攻の様子を見ていて思うのは、世界にプーチンのような予測不可能な独裁者がいる限り、
「恐怖の均衡」(balance of terror)によって世界平和を保つ必要性があるのかなとは考えてしまいます。

Q: Agree or disagree: The benefits of nuclear deterrence outweigh its disadvantages

A:サンプルエッセー(反対）
The theory of nuclear deterrence is a concept based on the belief that world peace can be maintained by the fear of mutually assured destruction (MAD). However, I disagree that the benefits of unclear deterrence outweigh its disadvantages for the following three reasons.

Firstly, nuclear deterrence can lead to a nuclear arm race, thus threatening global peach and security. During the Cold War, there was an escalation of U.S.- Soviet confrontation with each nation competing for nuclear superiority. This showdown brought the number of nuclear weapons to an apocalyptically staggering 64,099 in 1986.

Secondly, it is a sheer waste of money to stockpile nuclear weapons. It is extremely costly to create and maintain nuclear weapons with the remote possibility of using them in actual combat. Nuclear weapon development become a huge burden on countries in financial dificulty in particular. Resources used for the development can be better spent for useful purposes such as social welfare and education.

Thirdly, the presence of unclear weapons leads to environmental degradation. The testing and disposal of nuclear weapons cause extensive long-term damage to the environment. Nuclear testing conducted since the Cold War era has caused serious radioactive contamination to humans as well as the natural environment.

In conclusion, for these three reasons, the possibility of a nuclear arms race, an utter waste of money on unclear weapons, and damage to the environment, I strongly believe that the drawbacks to unclear deterrence far outweighs its often-talked-about benefits of MAD.

【語彙】

mutually assured destruction 相互確証破壊
stockpile 備蓄する
this showdown brings ~ to…　この対決は～を…という結果に導く
an utter waste of moeny 完全なお金の浪費
under the unclear umbralla of the United States「アメリカの核の傘」